For several decades, life expectancy in Europe has been rising steadily, thanks to medical advances, better nutrition and improved living conditions. However, this trend has slowed over the past decade. In several European countries, the rise in life expectancy has slowed or even stagnated, and the Covid-19 health crisis has accentuated this trend. What are the factors behind this stagnation, and how can this trend be reversed?
A worrying slowdown in life expectancy in Europe
A study published in The Lancet Public Health analyzes life expectancy trends in 16 countries of the European Economic Area (EEA) and the four nations of the United Kingdom over a period of more than 30 years. This analysis highlights a slowdown in progress in life expectancy since 2011, as well as the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic between 2019 and 2021.
- Steady progress until 2011
Between 1990 and 2011, all the countries studied recorded an average annual increase in life expectancy of 0.23 years. This improvement was mainly due to a reduction in deaths from cardiovascular disease and cancer, thanks to medical advances and the reduction of certain risk factors (smoking, hypertension, etc.).
- A clear slowdown between 2011 and 2019
However, from 2011 onwards, progression slows down in most of the countries studied, to an average annual increase of 0.15 years. The notable exception is Norway, where life expectancy fell from 0.25 per year to just 0.07, marking one of the most significant slowdowns.
Among the causes of this phenomenon, the study highlights a stagnation, or even an increase, in the explosion of the main risk factors, notably obesity and poor diet (increased consumption of processed products, rich in saturated fatty acids and refined successes). Lack of physical activity is also a major factor in this stagnation, as our Western societies are becoming increasingly sedentary, which increases the risk of cardiovascular disease.
- The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic (2019-2021)
Between 2019 and 2021, eyesight expectancy fell in almost all the countries analyzed, with an average annual decline of -0.18 years. Some countries, such as Greece and England, saw particularly steep declines (up to -0.61 years per year in Greece).
However, five countries managed to maintain or improve their life expectancy despite the pandemic: Ireland, Iceland, Sweden, Norway and Denmark. These countries were more resilient to the decline in deaths from cardiovascular disease and cancer, thanks to better management of risk factors and more robust healthcare systems.
Main risk factors identified
The study highlights several risk factors influencing trends in life expectancy:
- Improving factors :
- Reduction in smoking, one of the main causes of cancer and cardiovascular disease.
- Worsening factors :
- Obesity on the rise in all countries studied
- High blood pressure and cholesterol, with the decline slowing after 2011.
- Unbalanced diet, with insufficient consumption of fruit and vegetables.
- Sedentary lifestyle, an aggravating factor in cardiovascular and metabolic diseases.
The study points out that public health policies have played a crucial role in controlling these factors. For example, nutritional policies in Norway and anti-smoking strategies in Sweden have contributed to greater resilience in the face of health crises.
Life expectancy in Europe: decisive public policies
Those involved in the study insist on the need for strong public policies to reverse the trend. Recommendations include :
- Strengthen prevention of cardiovascular disease and cancer, by promoting healthy eating and physical activity.
- Better supervision of the food and tobacco industries, which are responsible for a large proportion of health risks.
- Invest in healthcare systems, notably by facilitating access to preventive and curative care.
- Adopt fiscal and regulatory measures, such as taxing ultra-processed foods and sugary drinks, as Norway and the United Kingdom have done.
This study highlights a worrying dual trend: a slowdown in gains in life expectancy since 2011, and a marked decline due to the COVID-19 pandemic. However, some countries have shown that a proactive public health policy can mitigate these effects and ensure continued improvement in ageing, particularly in good health.
The key lesson is that governments have the power to make a lasting difference to the health of their populations. Targeted action on key risk factors – diet, physical activity, tobacco control and access to healthcare – is essential to rebuilding health resilience in Europe.
Published by the Editorial Staff on