South Korea is fast becoming one of the world’s oldest societies. According to Statistics Korea projections, almost half of South Korea’s population will be aged 65 and over by 2072. This rapid ageing in South Korea, combined with a historically low birth rate, is leading to a gradual decline in the population and raising major economic and social challenges.
South Korea: an accelerating ageing population
In 2023, South Korea’s population stood at 51.71 million, with 18.2% aged 65 and over. By 2072, this figure is set to rise to 47.7%, or 17.27 million people. At the same time, the total population is set to fall to 36.22 million, a drop of over 30% in less than fifty years.
Compared to the global average, this transformation is spectacular. The percentage of elderly people in the global population will rise from 10.2% in 2024 to 20.3% in 2072, while South Korea’s percentage will increase from 19.2% to 47.7% over the same period. This rapid transition places the country among the world’s oldest societies, alongside Hong Kong and Puerto Rico.
Historically low birth rate in South Korea
The fertility rate in South Korea reached a record low in 2023, at just 0.72 children per woman. This is well below the replacement level of 2.1 needed to maintain the population. The downward trend has been observed for several decades: while the country still recorded 640,000 births in 2000, this number fell to 230,000 in 2023.
This situation is the result of several structural factors:
- The high cost of education and housing
- A highly competitive work culture
- Poor work-life balance
- The disproportionate burden of domestic chores falling on women
Despite major government initiatives to encourage childbirth, such as financial aid and subsidies for oocyte freezing, results remain limited.
A major economic and social impact
The decline in the number of working-age people (15-64) and the increase in the number of retirees are jeopardizing the country’s economic model. The working-age population is set to fall to 16.58 million by 2072, compared with 36.57 million in 2023. This reduction will have a direct impact on economic growth, productivity and the financing of pension systems.
The dependency ratio, which measures the number of dependents (aged 0-14 and 65+) in relation to the working population, is expected to reach 118.5% in 2072, compared with 42.5% in 2024. This figure reflects the growing pressure on younger generations to support the aging population.
Initiatives to reverse the trend
Faced with this crisis, South Korea has implemented several strategies:
- Policies to support the birth rate: financial aid for parents, childcare subsidies, extended parental leave.
- Improving work-life balance: flexible working arrangements, incentives for companies to encourage parenthood.
- Pension system reforms: incentives to employ older people and overhaul of the pension system.
- Attractiveness of immigration: although currently limited, opening up to immigration could become a solution to compensate for the decline in the working population.
Ageing in South Korea: an uncertain future
Despite these measures, South Korea’s demographic situation remains alarming. The country’s population could fall to 39 million by 2067, with a median age of 62. The transition to a “super-aged society” raises crucial questions about the country’s economic, social and cultural future.
If South Korea is to avoid irreversible decline, it will have to step up its efforts to encourage the birth rate, adapt its economic model to ageing, and rethink its immigration and employment policies. The country’s ability to adapt to these challenges will determine its long-term future.
Published by the Editorial Staff on