At the beginning of 2024, the population of the European Union was estimated at 449.3 million people, marking an increase of 0.3% compared to the previous year. This demographic growth, although positive, masks a deeper trend that could disrupt the European economy and society: population ageing. With a growing share of people over 65 and declining birth rates, the EU faces major challenges in the coming decades.
An inexorable demographic trend
In 2024, the proportion of people aged over 65 increased in 26 of the 27 EU countries, reaching record levels in Italy (24.3%), Portugal (24.1%), and Bulgaria (23.8%). Only Malta saw this share decrease. At the same time, the proportion of children (aged 0–14) remains low, with countries like Italy (12.2%) and Portugal (12.8%) recording the lowest rates.
This trend results from a combination of factors: increased life expectancy and historically low fertility rates. As a result, the median age of the population has risen by 2.2 years in a decade, reaching 44.7 years in 2024. In some countries, such as Italy and Portugal, the median age has increased by four years, reflecting the acceleration of ageing.
Ageing population in Europe: A significant economic and social impact
The ageing population presents a major economic challenge: a growing burden on the working-age population. The old-age dependency ratio (number of retirees per 100 working-age individuals) currently stands at 33.9% and is expected to nearly double by 2100, reaching almost 60%. This means that for every retiree, there will be fewer than two workers, putting increasing pressure on pension and healthcare systems.
Moreover, public spending related to healthcare and long-term care is set to rise. The share of people over 80 in the total population is expected to triple by 2100, rising from 6.1% to 15.3%. This demographic transformation requires adaptation of infrastructure and public policy.
What solutions for the EU?
In response to this looming crisis, several solutions are being considered:
- Promoting immigration: The immigrant population in Europe is, on average, younger than the native population. A suitable migration policy could help offset the decline in the working-age population.
- Encouraging birth rates: Support measures for families, such as longer parental leave, increased family allowances, and better access to childcare services, could help boost birth rates.
- Extending working life: With life expectancy on the rise, it may be necessary to delay retirement age and promote employment among older adults.
- Investing in innovation and automation: To address labor shortages, automation and artificial intelligence could play a crucial role in many sectors.
Ageing population in europe: Future outlook
Eurostat projections indicate that the EU population will peak in 2026 at 453.3 million before gradually declining to 419.5 million by 2100. The median age will exceed 50 years, and seniors will account for one-third of the population.
If the EU fails to implement appropriate measures, it risks facing a slowdown in economic growth and significant strain on its social model. A coordinated strategy among member states is essential to address this demographic challenge and safeguard Europe’s prosperity.
Published by the Editorial Staff on